Atilla Ay

photo - Atilla Ay

Atilla Ay

Doctoral Student of Decision Sciences


Contact:

Email: Atilla Ay
2201 G Street NW Washington, D.C. 20052

Atilla Ay is a doctoral student of decision sciences at the GW School of Business in Washington, D.C.

  • B.S. in Computer Engineering, Koc University, Turkey, 2015
  • B.S. in Industrial Engineering, Koc University, Turkey, 2015
  • Stochastic Models
  • Reliability Modeling and Analysis
  • Bayesian Methods
  • INFORMS Annual Meeting Virtual Conference, November 2020.
    Reliability Assessment in Power Systems Using Markov Modulated Markov Models
  • Joint Statistical Meeting (JSM) Virtual Conference, August 2020
    Modeling Power Outages via Markov Modulated Compound Poisson Processes
  • Games, Decisions, Risk and Reliability (GDRR) Transportation Workshop, Durham N.C., March 2020
    Use of Markov Modulated Poisson Processes for Reliability Assessment in Rail Systems
  • Games, Decisions, Risk and Reliability (GDRR) Opening Workshop, Raleigh, N.C., August 2019
    Bayesian Inference on Doubly Stochastic Markov Processes in Reliability
  • International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability (MMR), Hong Kong, June 2019
    Bayesian Inference on Doubly Stochastic Markov Processes in Reliability
  • International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA), Edinburgh, U.K., June 2018
    No Show Predictions in Hospital Appointments: A Bayesian Approach
  • "Bayesian Analysis of Doubly Stochastic Markov Processes in Reliability." Atilla Ay, Joshua Landon, Refik Soyer, Suleyman Ozekici. Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences (2020). Advance online publication. DOI: 10.1017/s0269964820000157.
  • "Bayesian Analysis of Markov Modulated Queues with Abandonment." Atilla Ay, Joshua Landon, Refik Soyer, Suleyman Ozekici. Under revision to be resubmitted to Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry.
  • "Bayesian Modeling of Power Outages and Their Consequences." Atilla Ay, Refik Soyer. Working Paper (to be submitted to Naval Research Logistics).
  • "A Latent-Factor Self-Exciting Point Process for Software Failures." Atilla Ay, Joshua Landon, Fabrizio Ruggeri, Refik Soyer. Working Paper (to be submitted to Reliability Engineering & System Safety).
  • "No Show Predictions in Hospital Appointments: A Bayesian Deep Learning Approach." Atilla Ay, Refik Soyer. Summer Paper (to be submitted to Health Care Management Science).