Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk (GDRR)
PROGRAM
Wednesday, May 27, 2009 Duques 651
8:00-8:45am Coffee and Continental Breakfast
8:45-9:00am Opening Remarks
Prabir Bagchi, Senior Associate Dean, GWSB
9:00-10:30am Session 1: Preference Modeling and Risk Assessment
Chair: Thomas A. Mazzuchi, George Washington University
James Berger, Duke University, "Risk Assessment for Pyroclastic Flows".
Roger Cooke, Delft University & Resources for the Future, "Stakeholder Preference Modeling with Probabilistic Inversion".
10:30-11:00am Coffee Break, Duques 650 Lobby Area
11:00-12:30pm Session 2: Risk Analysis
Chair:
Philip W. Wirtz, George Washington University
David Banks, Duke University, "Adversarial Risk Analysis: Games and Auctions".
Art Dempster, Harvard University, "My Current View of DS Inference Introduced via a New Model for Exponentially Distributed Waiting Times".
12:30-2:00pm Lunch, Duques 650
2:00-3:30pm Session 3: Risk Analysis and Portfolio Management
Chair:
Srinivas Prasad, George Washington University
Philippe Delquié, INSEAD, "Between Positive and Normative Theories of Choice: A Mean-Risk Model".
S. Özekici, Koç University, "HARA Frontiers in Portfolio Management".
3:30-4:00pm Coffee Break, Duques 650 Lobby Area
4:00-5:30pm Session 4: Social Networks and Game Theory
Chair:
Ernest H. Forman, George Washington University
Daron Acemoglu, MIT, "Bayesian Learning in Social Networks".
Jay Kadane, Carnegie Mellon University, "How does a Bayesian Play Games?"
5:30pm Reception, Duques 650 Lobby Area
7:00pm Dinner, Duques 650
After dinner talk: Xiao-Li Meng, Harvard University,
"Volatility and Extreme Events: How Reliable Was Larry Summers' Calculation?"
Thursday, May 28, 2009 Duques 651
7:45-8:30am Coffee and Continental Breakfast, Duques 650
8:30-10:30am Session 5: Probability in Reliability and Risk
Chair:
Jagdish Chandra, George Washington University
Erhan Cinlar, Princeton University, "Multidimensional Gamma Fields".
Jayaram Sethuraman, Florida State University, "Partition based Nonparametric Priors to Analyze Data from a Special Class of Dependent Models".
S. R. S. Varadhan, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, NYU, "On Large Deviations".
10:30-11:00am Coffee Break, Duques 650 Lobby Area
11:00-12:30pm Session 6: Reliability Modeling and Warranties
Chair:
Hosam M. Mahmoud, George Washington University
Fabrizio Ruggeri, CNR-IMATI, "Bayesian Modeling of Train Doors' Reliability".
Simon Wilson, Trinity College, "Game Theory and Warranties".
12:30-2:00pm Lunch, Duques 650
2:00-4:00pm Session 7: Bayesian Design and Information
Chair:
Jonathan Stroud, George Washington University
Ehsan S. Soofi, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, "Triangulation of Sample, Parameter, and Predictive Information".
Peter Mueller, M. D. Anderson Cancer Center, "Randomized Discontinuation Design".
Nicholas Polson, University of Chicago, "Particle-based Accelerated Life Test Designs".